Constructing US - China tension index from Vietnamese media

Abstract

This study develops the UCTV (U.S.-China Tension Index from Vietnamese
Media) to quantify the level of U.S.-China tension from the perspective of Vietnamese
media. The dataset comprises over 700,000 economic news articles collected from five
major Vietnamese economic news sources during the period of 2014–2023, utilizing
automated data collection techniques (web scraping) combined with the Python
newspaper3k library, followed by filtering through a keyword catalog and manual
validation. Analytical results demonstrate that the data from the five sources underpinning
UCTV exhibit high reliability, with internal consistency confirmed by a Cronbach’s Alpha
coefficient. The index shows significant alignment with the UCT (U.S.-China Tension
Index) of the United States and the GEPU (Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index),
while no clear correlation is observed with the GPR (Geopolitical Risk Index). UCTV
captures substantial fluctuations associated with key geopolitical events impacting
Vietnam, such as the HD-981 oil rig incident (May 2014) and the U.S.-China Trade War
(2018–2019). This research not only provides an effective quantitative tool to assist
Vietnamese businesses and government in assessing geopolitical risks and formulating
long-term strategies amid global instability, but also offers a clearer perspective on the
dynamics of U.S.-China tension through the lens of domestic media. Furthermore, UCTV
holds the potential to serve as a foundation for advancing similar studies in other domains,
broadening the application of media data in quantitative analysis.