RISK IDENTIFICATION AND PROFIT OPTIMIZATION FOR STAKEHOLDERS IN COMMODITY TRADING MARKETS: EVIDENCE FROM VIETNAM

Аннотация

This study investigates how key market risk factors affect profitability in Vietnam’s commodity trading
markets during the 2013–2023 period. The analysis focuses on five modelled determinants of profitability,
namely price volatility, exchange rate fluctuations, policy risk, market liquidity, and GDP growth. A two-step
System Generalized Method of Moments estimator is employed to examine the dynamic relationship
between these factors and profitability while addressing endogeneity and persistence in panel data. To
complement the regression analysis, Value-at-Risk is used to quantify the downside exposure of major
traded commodities under different confidence levels. The findings indicate that price volatility, currency
fluctuations, and policy risk exert significant negative effects on profitability, whereas market liquidity and
GDP growth have significant positive effects. The results also show that crude oil exhibits the highest
downside risk, followed by aluminum and rice. The study contributes empirical evidence from an emerging
market context by linking dynamic profitability estimation with commodity-specific risk quantification. The
findings imply that market participants should strengthen exchange rate and price-risk management, while
policymakers should improve regulatory stability and market liquidity to support more sustainable trading
performance