Applying econometric models to forecast green finance mobilization trends in Vietnam, 2025–2035
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.56097/binhduonguniversityjournalofscienceandtechnology.v8i4.354Keywords:
green finance; ARIMA model; multiple regression; financial forecasting; econometrics; Viet NamAbstract
In the context of Viet Nam’s commitment to achieving net-zero emissions by
2050, the mobilization and efficient allocation of green finance play a crucial role in the
transition toward a low-carbon economy. However, quantitative studies on medium- and
long-term forecasting of green finance in Viet Nam remain limited. This study aims to
forecast green finance mobilization trends in Viet Nam for the period 2025–2035 and to
analyze the impact of key economic and financial factors on the scale of green finance
mobilized. The study employs annual time-series data covering the period 2012–2023,
collected from official domestic and international sources. The research methodology
includes the use of an ARIMA time-series model to forecast green finance trends and a
multiple linear regression model to quantify the effects of factors such as GDP, public
investment, green credit, green bonds, and foreign direct investment in the energy sector.
Econometric tests are conducted to ensure data stationarity and the adequacy of the
estimated models.
